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Projected Impacts of Climate Change
Climate Change in the Russian North
Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Changing winds, temperatures
and storm tracks
¥   Anthropogenic forcing has likely contributed to circulation changes (storm tracks, winds and temperature patterns)
Warmer, wetter winters in Norway; drier in Spain (and North Africa)

Normal cover of Arctic Sea Ice
Figure TS.16. Vegetation of the Arctic: current conditions and projected changes under the IS92a scenario for 2090-2100
Slide 8
Projected future changes in northern Asia permafrost boundary under the SRES A2 scenario for 2100 (IPCC)
Melting Permafrost
Map of Transneft and CIS Main Oil Pipelines
Map 1. Major natural gas producing and prospective regions & pipelines
Change in Annual Average Precipitation 1976-2005
Siberian forest fires
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
CARBON
 CYCLE
&
INVENTORIES
Differential Impacts of Different GHGs
Carbon Dioxide terms long-term
Emission Paths to Stabilization
EEZ Boundaries
Results of BBC World Service Global Survey of Views
Russian testimonials
"It's been a mild winter, lots of rivers are drying up. For us, it makes no difference -- it'd be better if it were even warmer. But it bothers the reindeer." Ivan Kanev, a nomad reindeer herder NARYAN-MAR, Nenets Autonomous District.
"Of course you can see the effects of global warming. Sheet ice that normally covers the waters of the Barents Sea is quickly starting to shift and disappear.  In recent years, you can't really see this permanent sea ice. It comes and goes. If the wind  blows this way, it brings the ice to the coast. If it blows the other way, it floats away.Ó Vera Letkova, meteorologist.

Geographical Pattern of Kyoto Acceptance
Basic UNFCCC & Kyoto Protocol information
UNFCCC - United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Kyoto Protocol is amendment of UNFCCC
Signed December 11, 1997 at Kyoto, Japan
Opened for signature on March 16, 1998
Need 55 countries representing 55% of 1990 CO2 emissions to ratify for entry-into-force
GHG reduction targets for 2008-2012
6 GHGs include CO2, CH4, N20, CFC-12,CFC-10,
2001 Bush says U.S. will not ratify
44.2% of 1990 global GHC emissions without US, Russia, Australia
Russia 17.4% of 1990 CO2 emissions
US and Australia ~40% of GHG emissions
Talks stall in Hague post-2000 election
2001 Bonn COP revisions - allows CO2 sink

Kyoto Glossary continued:
Baseline and credit
A type of emissions trading scheme where firms are encouraged to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions below a projected Òbusiness as usualÓ path of increasing emissions. Any reductions below that future path earns credits for the difference which can be sold to other emitters struggling to contain increases to baseline levels.
Cap and trade
The most popular type of emissions trading scheme where emissions are subject to a cap, permits are issued up to that cap, and a market allows those emitting less than their quota of the cap to sell their excess permits to emitters needing to buy extra to meet their quota.
Carbon dioxide equivalent, CO2e,
See MtCO2e
Carbon neutral
An individual, family or organization that is responsible for no net emissions of greenhouse gases from all its activities is considered "carbon neutral". Emissions must be cut to a minimum and any necessary emissions then offset by emission reducing activities elsewhere. Buying accredited clean electricity helps cut household or office greenhouse emissions, while investing in sustainable energy projects or afforestation schemes are examples of offsets.
Carbon positive
An individual, family or organization that is responsible for taking more greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere than it emits is said to be "carbon positive". This requires paying for activities such as forest planting or investing in renewable energy. 
 



Kyoto Glossary continued:
CDM
Clean Development Mechanism. A Kyoto Protocol initiative under which projects set up in developing countries to reduce atmospheric carbon generate tradable credits called CERs. The credits can be used by industrialized nations to offset carbon emissions at home and meet their Kyoto reduction targets. The projects include afforestation, reforestation and implementation of clean fuels technology.
CERs
Certified Emission Reductions. Credits generated under KyotoÕs Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) - see above. They are designed to be used by industrialized countries to count toward their Kyoto targets but can also be used by EU companies and governments as offsets against their emissions under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. 

EITs
Economies In Transition. Those nations in Annex I of the Kyoto Protocol considered developed but currently in transition to a market economy. Generally the nations and former republics of the old Soviet bloc.
Emissions g. A market-based system for regulating the emission of greenhouse gases. The quantity of emissions is controlled and the price allowed to vary by the issuing of tradable emission permits. These rights to emit can be traded in a commercial market under an emissions trading scheme.
ERUs
Emission Reduction Units. Tradable credits generated from activities to reduce greenhouse emissions in former Soviet-bloc countries under the Kyoto ProtocolÕs Joint Implementation (JI) mechanism.



Kyoto Glossary continued:
ETS
Emissions Trading Scheme.
EUA
European Union Allowances. Tradable emission credits from the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme. Each allowance carries the right to emit one ton of carbon dioxide.
ÒHot airÓ
Also called Òpaper creditsÓ, this refers to carbon credits for emission reductions that occurred without any deliberate action. The prime example being the carbon credits arising under Kyoto in Russia and the Ukraine where the collapse of Soviet-era industry in the 1990s has seen emissions fall well below 1990 levels, the base year for reduction calculations, without the implementation of any climate-related measures.
LULUCF
Land use, land use change and forestry. The term given to tree-planting projects, reforestation and afforestation, designed to remove carbon from the atmosphere.

NAPs
National Allocation Plans. These set out the overall emissions cap for countries in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, and the allowances that each sector and individual installation within each country receives.


Kyoto Glossary continued:
PDD
Project Design Document. The official application drawn up by an entity applying for project approval under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). PDDs must be validated by an independent third party, then approved and registered by the CDM Executive Board before a project qualifies as a CER carbon credit earner.
tCO2e, MtCO2e 
Tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, and millions of tons of carbon dioxide equivalent. This is the metric measurement unit for greenhouse emissions. The global warming impact of all greenhouse gases is measured in terms of equivalency to the impact of carbon dioxide (CO2). For example, one million tons of emitted methane, a far more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, is measured as 23 million tons of CO2 equivalent, or 23 MtCO2e.

VERs
Verified Emission Reductions. Tradable credits for greenhouse emission reduction activities generated to meet voluntary demand for carbon credits by organizations and individuals wanting to offset their own emissions.

Key Kyoto mechanisms
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Jointly agreed project investments by Annex 1 countries in non-Annex (developing) countries.  Resulting emissions savings classified as certified emission reductions (CERs) , investing country can use to offset against Kyoto commitments.
Joint Implementation (JI) Jointly agreed project investments by one Annex 1 country in another, leading to emission reductions.  Emissions savings (in ERUs) credited to investing country, debited against host country
Marrakech Accords 2001
Track 1 projects - host country approves
Track 2 projects - evaluated by independent organization
International Emissions Trading (IET)
    Trading of assigned amount units (AAUs) amount
    Annex B countries

Existing & proposed mechanisms for international emissions transactions under the Kyoto Protocol
What have been the Russian Negotiating Positions on the Kyoto mechanisms?
Oppose
Quantitative restrictions on
Kyoto mechanisms
Taxes on the implementation of Kyoto mechanisms
Special status of CDM as it discriminates against emissions trading and JI
Treating RussiaÕs emission surplus as Òhot airÓ
ÒSupplementarity owing to negative effects on development of market
Support
Early start of JI & emissions trading
Flexible approach to compliance
Forests as carbon sinks
International support for capacity-building in EITs
Regulatory role for state & government involvement
Reinvestment of emission trading revenues into climate change mitigation projects
Banking of carbon credits and forward contracts

What have been the arguments in Russia for and against ratifications of Kyoto Protocol?
For
Climate change impacts: permafrost, sea level rise
Enhanced FDI from JI
Revenue from likely sales of RussiaÕs emission surplus
Investments via Kyoto mechanisms could support modernization & innovation in energy sector
Improvements in energy efficiency crucial for future economic growth
GHGs reductions could improve domestic physical-ecological environment
Russian ratification of Kyoto could improve RussiaÕs image as a supporter of global multilateralism
Ratification and implementation may smooth the way for RussiaÕs entry into the WTO

What have been the arguments in Russia for and against ratifications of Kyoto Protocol?
Against
Climate change impacts may be positive for high Latitude Russia
Extent of anthropogenic climate change is (very) uncertain
Revenues from ratification and compliance are likely to be low
Costs would be too high for domestic compliance
Kyoto Protocol unfair because not all countries have taken on emission (reduction) commitments
Second phase or post-2012 GHG limits could conflict with RussiaÕs ambitious economic growth goals
US withdrawal, makes Kyoto Protocol nearly pointless
Kyoto Protocol is at best ineffective and more radical approaches are necessary