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| Figure 3.9 The Younger Dryas climate events |
| Figure 3.10 Climate Change over 140,000 years |
| Figure 3.11 400 years of Sunspot observations |
| Figure 3.12 Global surface temperature & sunÕs energyls reaching top of atmosphere |
| Figure 3.13 Average annual surface temperature |
| Figure 3.14 World Ocean Heat Content |
| Figure 3.16 Reconstructions of global temperature for past 1300 yers |
| Figure 3.17 Stages of last interglacial |
| Figure 3.19 Greenland ice sheet |
| Russia: A Nation in the Throws of climate change |
| Brief Outline |
| Climate Change Debate - Climate Skeptics | |
| Evidence for Global Warming (GW) | |
| Potential Positive Aspects of Global Warming for Russia | |
| Negative Aspects of GW for Russia | |
| Very Brief Review of Russian History vis-ˆ-vis Kyoto Protocol | |
| Also, very brief Putin/Medvedev -> PutinÕs Russian Climate Change Policy |
| Recent Examples/Reports of Climate Change Skepticism |
| Source: The Economist, March 30th-April 5th, 2013, p. 77. |
| Source: The Economist, March 30th-April 5th, 2013, p. 79. |
| Computer Model Comparison of Anthropogenic and Natural Forcing (red) vs. Only Natural Forcing (blue) |
| Observed Vs. modeled temperature rise since 1860 |
| Normal cover of Arctic Sea Ice |
| Dramatic changes in Arctic Sea ice minimum |
| Arctic Ice |
| Arctic sea ice 2012 minimum |
| Recent classification of perspectives on Climate Change/Global Warming |
| Some Evidence of Global warming* |
| Potential Positive (??) Impacts of Global Warming for Russia |
| Offshore production and transport due to Arctic sea-ice reductions, longer navigation season | |
| Savings on space heating | |
| Uncertain implications for surface land transit | |
| Agriculture implications mixed | |
| Climate Change in the
Arctic: Beating a retreat The Economist September 24th, 2011 p. 99 |
| Land & Ocean Temperatures: Arctic & Global |
| grass |
| "Gas!" in Novy Urengoi, just below the Arctic
Circle in far northern Russia NATALIA KOLESNIKOVA / AFP / GETTY |
| Temperature Anomalies from 2006, Fig. 10.32b is looks similar, but is more recent from Jan.-June 2010, p. 286. |
| Projected changes in Annual Temperatures for the 2050s |
| Surface Temperature Projections, (Source: IPCC 2007) |
| Permafrost Regions in the FSU |
| Projected future changes in northern Asia permafrost boundary under the SRES A2 scenario for 2100 (IPCC) |
| Scenes from NorilÕsk and Talnakh |
| Evidence of melting permafrost in Siberian forest. NASA photo |
| Major natural gas producing and prospective regions & pipelines |
| Map of Transneft and CIS Main Oil Pipelines |
| Siberian forest fires |
| Russia & Climate Change: Some Key Points |
| Some Negative Climate Impacts on Russian Energy Sector of Climate Change |
| Stability of energy infrastructure - drilling platforms and pipelines | |
| Over 7400 accidents related to permafrost melting in W. Siberia reported in 2007 | |
| $1.8 billion spent annually on pipeline accidents and upkeep | |
| Extreme weather events amount to ~$2 billion/yr | |
| Huge infrastructure implications of permafrost melting for water supply and sewer systems | |
| Implications for permafrost melting on Novaya Zemlya -radioactive waste storage |
| Fossil Fuel Usage per Capita |
| What has been RussiaÕs history regarding Kyoto? |
| Duma (2003) WWF (Dec. 2003) survey of Duma - <25% favor, >50% ratification possible, >25% opposed | |||
| 2003 250 RAS members sign NGO petition favoring adoption of Kyoto | |||
| Jan. 2004 Chair State DumaÕs international affairs committee says parliamentary hearings would be held spring 2004 | |||
| Lots of controversy late winter to autumn 2004 | |||
| May 2004, Putin has WTO accession talks with EU | |||
| Sept 23, 2004, Ministry of Natural Resources formally recommends Kyoto Approval | |||
| Sept 27, 2004, Illarionov compares Kyoto Protocol to Fascism | |||
| Sept 30, 2004, Russian Cabinet of Ministers approves federal law to ratify Kyoto | |||
| Nov 18, 2004, Russia ratifies Kyoto | |||
| Feb 16, 2005, Kyoto Protocol enters into force | |||
| Feb 2006 161 nations have ratified Kyoto Protocol | |||
| President MedvedevÕs words Feb. 18, 2010,shortly after Copenhagen climate talks |
| Scenarios for Russian CO2 emissions assuming growth rates of 2, 4, 6, and 7.2% (GDP doubling in 10 years) for fast and slow intensity improvements |
| Kyoto Cross |
| Points in MedvedevÕs remarks to several ministers & senior aids |
| Russia and climate change policy |
| RussiaÕs increasingly passive role in international climate policy |
| Ratification of Kyoto | ||
| Political factors (WTO) without so far very meaningful policy changes | ||
| 7 year wait before Russia signed Kyoto Protocol | ||
| trading carbon credits | ||
| Siberian forest for carbon sequestration | ||
| Poznan Conference of Parties (COP Dec. 2008) | ||
| Russia asserted 25-40% reduction in CO2 emissions in 2020 compared to 1990 ÒunreasonableÓ | ||
| asserted binding commitments must be interpreted as both Òflexible, and Ònon-enforceable, non-punitiveÓ | ||
| Some early hopeful signs under Medvedev | ||
| June 2009 Medvedev proposed RussiaÕs target as 10-15% below 1990 levels | ||
| Dec. 2009 Medvedev increased reduction target to 20-25% | ||
| Resent Russian retreat | ||
| Putin words set of tone of retreat and Russian backtracking since signing Kyoto. | ||
| Upshot - Russia seems to imply that the problems of reducing GHGs is really a Chinese and American problem. | ||
| Russia at Copenhagen COP-15, Dec. 2009 |
| Just prior, Medvedev signed Russian Climate Doctrine: | ||
| acknowledged harmful effects of climate change | ||
| outlined measures for adaptation (permafrost melting, infrastructure collapse, N-S spread of disease | ||
| mitigation measures | ||
| states need to account for economic, social and other policy consequences of climate change | ||
| Medvedev attends saying ÒRussia is ready to play active partÉÓ | ||
| Russia agreed to provide funding for Copenhagen Green Climate Fund (financing for adaptation and mitigation activities in LDCs) | ||
| February 1, 2010, RussiaÕs plans for GHG reducing commitment to 15-25% of 1990 levels stipulating: | ||
| on condition that all major emitters coming to legally binding agreement | ||
| RussiaÕs forestsÕ CO2 absorption being accounted, but not forest management -I.e., forest harvests | ||
| March 2010 Medvedev instructed Russian Security Council to approve package of implementation measures | ||
| Measures were to be drafted into laws and regulations by October 1, 2010 | ||
| Hum, clear evidence of global warming in Russia? |