The growth in
Russia's proven reserves is mainly happening at existing fields in western Siberia, a
supposedly "mature" region where production had been declining until
recently. DeGolyer & MacNaughton predicts that
western Siberia could boost its output to 10 million bbl. a day by 2012, up from less than 6 million at present, and keep
production at that level for at least 10 years. The use of even newer
technologies available by then means that western Siberian oil production may not decline for decades to come. Russia's
reserve potential is vaster still when undeveloped regions,
such as the Arctic, the Caspian, and in particular eastern Siberia, are factored in. And then there's Russia's plentiful
supply of natural gas. It is already acknowledged as having the
world's largest gas reserves, with 47 trillion cubic meters, or 26.7% of global reserves.
But tapping Russia's vast oil pool will require billions in investment,
especially in export pipelines. Although on course for 8%
growth this year, production gains could slow as export bottlenecks
appear. But infrastructure investment is likely to go up in tandem with reserve
estimates. If Russia finds a way to get all that lovely oil to needy
international consumers, its days as a global energy powerhouse could
be just beginning.
By Jason Bush