|
|
|
|
Oppose |
|
Quantitative restrictions on
Kyoto mechanisms |
|
Taxes on the implementation of Kyoto
mechanisms |
|
Special status of CDM as it
discriminates against emissions trading and JI |
|
Treating RussiaÕs emission surplus as Òhot
airÓ |
|
ÒSupplementarity owing to negative
effects on development of market |
|
Support |
|
Early start of JI & emissions
trading |
|
Flexible approach to compliance |
|
Forests as carbon sinks |
|
International support for
capacity-building in EITs |
|
Regulatory role for state &
government involvement |
|
Reinvestment of emission trading
revenues into climate change mitigation projects |
|
Banking of carbon credits and forward
contracts |
|
|
|
|
For |
|
Climate change impacts: permafrost, sea
level rise |
|
Enhanced FDI from JI |
|
Revenue from likely sales of RussiaÕs
emission surplus |
|
Investments via Kyoto mechanisms could
support modernization & innovation in energy sector |
|
Improvements in energy efficiency
crucial for future economic growth |
|
GHGs reductions could improve domestic
physical-ecological environment |
|
Russian ratification of Kyoto could
improve RussiaÕs image as a supporter of global multilateralism |
|
Ratification and implementation may
smooth the way for RussiaÕs entry into the WTO |
|
|
|
|
Against |
|
Climate change impacts may be positive
for high Latitude Russia |
|
Extent of anthropogenic climate change
is (very) uncertain |
|
Revenues from ratification and
compliance are likely to be low |
|
Costs would be too high for domestic
compliance |
|
Kyoto Protocol unfair because not all
countries have taken on emission (reduction) commitments |
|
Second phase or post-2012 GHG limits
could conflict with RussiaÕs ambitious economic growth goals |
|
US withdrawal, makes Kyoto Protocol
nearly pointless |
|
Kyoto Protocol is at best ineffective
and more radical approaches are necessary |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Duma (2003) WWF (Dec. 2003) survey of
Duma - <25% favor, >50% ratification possible, >25% opposed |
|
2003 250 RAS members sign NGO petition favoring adoption of
Kyoto |
|
Jan. 2004 Chair State DumaÕs
international affairs committee says parliamentary hearings would be held
spring 2004 |
|
Lots of controversy late winter to
autumn 2004 |
|
May 2004, Putin has WTO accession talks with EU |
|
Sept 23, 2004, Ministry of Natural
Resources formally recommends Kyoto Approval |
|
Sept 27, 2004, Illarionov compares
Kyoto Protocol to Fascism |
|
Sept 30, 2004, Russian Cabinet of
Ministers approves federal law to ratify Kyoto |
|
Nov 18, 2004, Russia ratifies Kyoto |
|
Feb 16, 2005, Kyoto Protocol enters
into force |
|
Feb 2006 161 nations have ratified
Kyoto Protocol |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Marrakech 2002, Russian bargains hard
for 30% drop below |
|
1990 baseline levels for calculating Òcarbon
creditsÓ, due to |
|
steep economic decline |
|
|
|
Emissions trading, ~$10 Billion over
next 10 years |
|
|
|
AAUs - Assigned Amount units |
|
|
|
JI - Joint Implementation |
|
|
|
CDM - Clean Development Mechanism |
|
|
|
Renewal energy projects, geothermal,
winds, biomass |
|
|
|
Decision probably more political
process than scientific or policy debate |
|
|
|
EU support for WTO membership |
|
|
|
|
|
Total GAS Liquid Solid Gas
Cement
Per Capita
Bunker |
|
Year CO2 Fuels Fuels Fuels Flaring
Production Emission
Rate* Fuels |
|
|
|
1992 541511 226466 168274 134640 3740 8391 3.65 0 |
|
1993 494142 217281 143272 123856 2947 6786 3.34 0 |
|
1994 427246 195526 110672 113536 2453 5059 2.89 0 |
|
1995 410370 194628 99767 108308 2704 4964 2.78
7857 |
|
1996 407559 198815 90714 111693 2556 3781 2.76
7436 |
|
1997 402240 194597 100541 100982 2489 3631 2.73
7303 |
|
1998 396036 194221 101599 94191 2489 3536 2.70 6859 |
|
1999 394887 196469 94826 97308 2422 3862 2.71
7090 |
|
2000 401144 199245 95968 99170 2354 4406 2.73
7454 |
|
2001 400068 203194 97113 94960 0
4801 2.77
7666 |
|
2002 397964 203398 94670 94770 0 5127 2.76
7954 |
|
2003 415454 213981 100359 95539 0
5576 2.90
8082 |
|
2004 415951 216517 95241 92427 5551 6215 2.89
8201 |
|
|
|
*metric tons of C |
|
|
|
Source: Gregg Marland, Tom Boden &
Robert J. Andres, ÒNational CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning, Cement
Manufacture, and Gas Flaring: 1751-2004,Ó Carbon Dioxide Information |
|
Analysis Center(CDIAC), Oak Ridge
National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-6335, August 17, 2007. |
|
|
|
|
International Emissions Trading (IET) |
|
Trading of assigned amount units (AAUs) amount |
|
Annex B countries |
|
Joint Implementation (JI) Jointly
agreed project investments by one Annex 1 country in another, leading to
emission reductions. Emissions
savings (in ERUs) credited to investing country, debited against host country |
|
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Jointly
agreed project investments by Annex 1 countries in non-Annex (developing)
countries. Resulting emissions
savings classified as certified emission reductions (CERs) , investing
country can use to offset against Kyoto commitments. |
|
Marrakech Accords 2001 |
|
Track 1 projects - host country
approves |
|
Track 2 projects - evaluated by
independent organization |
|
|
|
|
Revamping the Economy |
|
Perfecting market policy |
|
Fighting corruption |
|
Raising peopleÕs well-being |
|
Strengthening civil society
institutions (rule of law) |
|
Conflicting perspectives and approaches
regarding (regional) development |
|
Conflicting perspectives and approaches
to environmental problems and management |
|
The harsh environment, especially ÒThe
NorthÓ |
|
Much of country has average temperature
<5¼C |
|
High energy expenditures for heating
and transport |
|
Energy needs are and for foreseeable
future will be met by traditional CO2 emission-heavy hydrocarbon
sources |
|
|
|
|
Significant economic burden |
|
Potential serious conflicts with RussiaÕs
economic growth targets |
|
Future losses in Russian oil sector
– largest source of RussiaÕs foreign currency |
|
Uncertain market for Russian carbon
credits |
|
Competition from East European nations
and Ukraine |
|
Reduced demand without U.S. accession
to Kyoto |
|
Technological, institutional, legal,
organizational limitations and difficulties with compliance |
|
Need to marry and bring into alignment
all climate change policy components with other strategic development goals
and tasks |
|
|
|
Russian energy issues will dominate
over climate change issues |
|
In near term Russian political
considerations with dominate over economic ones as long as Russia is not well
integrated into the global economy - a mixed blessing |
|
Russia will move slowly on Kyoto
implementation institutions and given the USÕs intransigence on Kyoto and
climate change issues this is not surprising |
|
Ukrainian actions could speed up
Russian implementation |
|
Other foreign pressure e.g., EU will
likely not be productive |
|
Russia will remain skeptical of market
approaches, entitlement issues, mismatch with developed countries regarding
institutional and legal clarity |
|
|