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| Overview |
| Hunger on the Rise |
| Soaring Food Prices |
| How Did We Get Here? |
| Food price spikes in the past were event-driven, e.g. Indian monsoon failure; prices typically returned to normal with the next harvest | |
| This one is driven by unresolved long-term trends limiting food supply and increasing demand |
| Supply Constraints |
| Little unused arable land, loss of cropland to development and industry | |
| Overpumped aquifers, falling water tables, and over-allocated rivers limit irrigation expansion | |
| Slowing growth in crop yields | |
| Soils eroding, deserts expanding due to overgrazing, overplowing, deforestation | |
| Growing Demand |
| World population is increasing by 79 million annually | ||
| Some 3 billion people desire to move up the food chain and eat more grain-intensive livestock products | ||
| Food vs. Fuel: Expanding biofuel production means that cars and people compete for crops | ||
| Food vs.Fuel |
| Geopolitics of Food Scarcity |
| Climbing prices provoked riots and unrest in dozens of countries | |
| Contributed to the fall of HaitiÕs government | |
| Affluent food importers began buying or leasing large swaths of land abroad to grow food for themselves |
| A New Response: Farming Abroad |
| Libya plans to farm wheat on 100,000 hectares (250,000 acres) in Ukraine | |
| South Korea signed deals to grow wheat on 690,000 hectares in Sudan | |
| In all, some 50 large agreements worth $20-30 billion are being pursued |
| Potential for Conflict |
| Land often acquired in impoverished, hungry countries, e.g. Sudan and Ethiopia | |
| Deals lack transparency; local farmers left out | |
| Some countries plan to bring foreign farm workers, may fuel public outrage further | |
| Even these attempts to secure food supplies may prove futile unless the world addresses the long-term trends and looming stresses threatening food security | |
| Looming Stresses |
| Peak Oil |
| The 20 largest oil fields were discovered between 1917 and 1979 | |
| Since 1981, oil extraction has exceeded new discoveries by a widening margin | |
| Most of the easily recovered oil is already pumped | |
| Water Shortages |
| Between 1950 and 2000, world water use tripled | |
| Some 70% of water use is for irrigation | |
| Overextraction is leading to disappearing lakes and rivers failing to reach the sea | |
| Aquifer depletion is causing water tables to fall and wells to go dry | |
| 175 million Indians, 130 million Chinese are fed with grain produced by overpumping | |
| A Dramatic Example: Saudi Arabia |
| Saudi Arabia has heavily subsidized wheat production and as a result has been self-sufficient for more than 20 years | |
| Used oil-drilling technology to tap a non-replenishable aquifer to irrigate the desert | |
| In early 2008, announced the aquifer was largely depleted and wheat production would be phased out entirely by 2016 | |
| Will be importing nearly all the grain needed to feed its 30 million people |
| Climate Change |
| Since start of Industrial Revolution, carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere has risen from 277 parts per million to 387 parts per million | ||
| In 2008, 7.9 billion tons of carbon were emitted from burning fossil fuels – coal, oil, natural gas | ||
| Emissions from deforestation totaled 1.5 billion tons of carbon that year | ||
| Electricity generation and transportation are the largest sources of CO2 emissions, with coal-fired power plants the biggest culprit | ||
| As CO2 accumulates, global temperature rises | ||
| Average Global Temperature and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentrations, 1880-2008 |
| Climate Change |
| The earth has warmed an average 0.6¡C (1.0¡F) since 1970 | |
| Rising temperatures fuel stronger storms and increase crop-withering heat waves | |
| The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects earthÕs average temperature will rise 1.1 - 6.4¡C (2.0 - 11.5¡F) during this century | |
| Current trajectory is already outpacing projections | |
| For every 1¡C rise in temperature above the norm during the growing season, yields of wheat, rice, and corn drop 10 percent. | |
| Ice Melting |
| Losing our Reservoirs in the Sky | ||
| Mountain glaciers rapidly disappearing worldwide | ||
| Himalayan and Tibetan-Qinghai Plateau glaciers sustain the major rivers of Asia during the dry season, providing critical irrigation water for agriculture | ||
| If melting continues at current rates, rivers like the Yellow, Yangtze, Ganges, and Indus could become seasonal, causing wheat and rice harvests to plummet | ||
| Ice Melting |
| Rising Seas | ||
| Massive Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets are melting at accelerating rates | ||
| Together hold enough water to raise sea level 12 meters (39 feet) | ||
| A 10-meter rise in sea level today would inundate coastal areas home to more than 600 million people | ||
| Food: The Weak Link? |
| Food shortages led to collapse of Sumerian, Mayan, and many other early civilizations | |
| Could food be the weak link for our 21st century global civilization? | |
| We are failing to reverse trends undermining food security while adding new stresses | |
| Accumulating problems and their consequences may overwhelm more and more governments, accelerating spread of state failure | |
| Failing States |
| States fail when governments lose control of part or all of their territory and can no longer ensure their peopleÕs security | |
| Rapidly growing populations, rising hunger and poverty, resource depletion, and political stresses are pushing more countries such as Afghanistan, Haiti, and Sudan toward state failure each year, decreasing stability | |
| How many failing states before our global civilization begins to unravel? |
| Tipping Points |
| Can we address the root causes of rising food insecurity and state failure in time to avoid global political instability? | |
| Can we halt deforestation before the Amazon rainforest dries out, becoming vulnerable to fire? | |
| Can we close coal-fired power plants fast enough to avoid losing the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets? | |
| Can we cut carbon emissions quickly enough to keep temperature from spiraling out of control? | |
| Business as usual is not working – ItÕs time for Plan B. |
| Plan B: Four Main Goals |
| Stabilizing Population | |
| Eradicating Poverty | |
| Restoring the EarthÕs Natural Support Systems | |
| Stabilizing Climate |
| Stabilizing Population and Eradicating Poverty |
| Universal primary education | |
| Eradication of adult illiteracy | |
| School lunch programs for 44 poorest countries | |
| Assistance to preschool children and pregnant women in 44 poorest countries | |
| Reproductive health care and family planning services | |
| Total Additional Annual Cost = $77 billion | |
| Restoring the Earth |
| Protecting and restoring forests | |
| Conserving and rebuilding soils | |
| Protecting biodiversity | |
| Restoring fisheries | |
| Stabilizing water tables | |
| Planting trees to sequester carbon | |
| Total Additional Annual Cost = $110 billion |
| Plan B Budget |
| Additional Global Annual Expenditure Needed: | |
| Basic Social Goals $77 billion | |
| Restoring the Earth $110 billion | |
| Total Plan B Budget $187 billion | |
| Perspective: This equals just one eighth of annual world military spending. |
| Climate Action Plan |
| Cut Global Net CO2 Emissions 80% by 2020 | |||
| Three components: | |||
| Raising energy efficiency and restructuring transportation | |||
| Replacing fossil fuels with renewables | |||
| Ending net deforestation and planting trees to sequester carbon | |||
| Éto prevent global atmospheric CO2 concentrations from exceeding 400 parts per million, minimizing future temperature rise. | |||
| Raising Energy Efficiency |
| Buildings | ||
| Retrofits with better insulation and more efficient appliances can cut energy use 20-50% | ||
| Lighting | ||
| A worldwide switch to highly-efficient home, office, industrial, and street lighting would cut electricity use 12%, equivalent to closing 705 of the worldÕs 2,670 coal-fired power plants | ||
| Appliances | ||
| JapanÕs Top Runner Program uses todayÕs most efficient appliances to set tomorrowÕs standards; e.g. helped boost computer efficiency by 99% | ||
| Raising Energy Efficiency |
| Industry | ||
| Improving manufacturing efficiency for carbon emissions heavyweights (chemicals, petrochemicals, steel, and cement) offers major opportunities to curb energy demand | ||
| Transportation | ||
| Restructuring transport to emphasize rail, light rail, and bus rapid transit would save energy while making walking and cycling safer | ||
| Moving from oil to electricity reaps big gains | ||
| A New Automotive Economy |
| Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) running primarily on emissions-free electricity generated by the wind and the sun would allow for low-carbon commuting, grocery shopping, and other short-distance travel | |
| Combining a shift to PHEVs with widespread wind farm construction would allow drivers to recharge batteries at a cost equivalent of less than $1 per gallon of gasoline |
| Slide 32 |
| Replacing Fossil Fuels
with Renewables |
| Wind | |
| Solar | |
| Geothermal | |
| Other: Small-scale Hydro, Tidal and Wave Power, Biomass |
| Harnessing the Wind |
| Centerpiece of Plan B energy economy | |
| Abundant – North Dakota, Kansas, and Texas alone could satisfy U.S. energy needs | |
| Widespread – in every country | |
| Increasingly inexpensive | |
| Plan B goal: 3 million MW of installed capacity worldwide by 2020 | |
| Need 1.5 million 2-MW turbines installed by 2020 |
| The Power of the Sun |
| Technologies include photovoltaics (PV), solar thermal power plants, solar hot water and space heaters | |
| Sunlight hitting the earth in 1 hour could power global economy for 1 year | |
| Plan B goal: Solar heating and electricity each exceed 1 million MW installed capacity by 2020 |
| Geothermal: Energy from the Earth |
| Heat in the upper 6 miles of earthÕs crust contains 50,000 times the energy found in global oil and gas reserves | |
| Plan B goal: increase geothermal heating 5-fold to 500,000 thermal MW and geothermal electricity production 20-fold to 200,000 MW by 2020 | |
| Slide 37 |
| Ending Net Deforestation,
Planting Trees |
| Ending net deforestation by 2020 will reduce annual CO2 emissions by 1.5 billion tons of carbon | |
| Planting trees and adopting less-intensive farming and land management practices can stabilize soils and sequester carbon | |
| Slide 39 |
| Putting a Price on Carbon |
| Problem: Price of fossil fuels does not reflect costs of climate change, markets not telling ecological truth | ||
| Solution: Tax restructuring | ||
| Plan B proposal: Raise tax on carbon emissions by $20 per ton each year, to reach $200 per ton of carbon by 2020 | ||
| Offset carbon tax with reduction in income tax | ||
| A Wartime Mobilization |
| Upon entering World War II, the U.S. mobilized resources and completely restructured its economy within months | |
| Saving civilization will require action equal in urgency but much larger in scale | |
| We have the technologies necessary to implement Plan B – what is needed now is the political will to do so |
| Pieces of the Puzzle |
| Countries and cities around the world give a sense of what is possible: | |
| In Copenhagen, 36% of commuters bike to work | |
| Iran cut its rapid population growth rate from 4.2% in the early 1980s to 1.3% in 2006 through national literacy, health, and family planning programs | |
| China has 27 million rooftop solar water heaters harnessing energy equal to the output of 49 coal-fired power plants | |
| JapanÕs high-speed rail system moves hundreds of thousands of passengers each day, measuring delays in seconds |
| Pieces of the Puzzle |
| Once almost treeless, South Korea has reforested 65% of its land | |
| In the Philippines, 19 million people get electricity from geothermal power plants | |
| Over the last quarter-century the United States reduced soil erosion 40% by retiring cropland and practicing conservation tillage, while increasing the grain harvest 20% | |
| In Germany, a systematic shift of taxes from labor to energy reduced annual CO2 emissions by 20 million tons and created 250,000 jobs between 1999 and 2003 | |
| Denmark gets more than 20% of its electricity from wind and is aiming for 50% | |
| Proposals for more than 100 coal-fired power plants in the United States have been shelved since 2001 |
| LetÕs Get to Work |
| Saving civilization is not a spectator sport. | ||
| Lester R. Brown | ||
| What You Can Do | ||
| Educate yourself on environmental issues | ||
| Spread the word: letters to the editor, op-eds, internet | ||
| Get politically involved: let elected officials know whatÕs important | ||
| Take action in an area that excites you, such as closing coal-fired power plants, tax restructuring, or ending biofuel mandates that raise food prices | ||
| The Choice is Ours |
| Will we stay with business as usual and preside over an economy that continues to destroy its natural support systems until it destroys itself? | |
| or | |
| Will we adopt Plan B and be the generation that changes direction, moving the world onto a path of sustained progress? | |