Nightmare
Scenario
¥40% drop in Russian grain harvest
reduced world grain stocks from 79 days of consumption
to 72 days
¥But what if the heat wave were
centered on Chicago and the much larger U.S. grain
harvest dropped 40%?
¥World grain stocks would plummet to
record-low 52 days – well below the level that
preceded the tripling of grain prices in 2007-08
¥Would likely result in unprecedented
food price inflation and food riots in scores of
countries, toppling weaker governments
World Grain Stocks as Days of Consumption, 1960-2010