| Slide 1 |
| Overview |
| A Bright Economic Future? |
| Warning of Collapse |
| A World on the Edge |
| A gathering Òperfect stormÓ of trends threatens to send civilization into economic and political chaos | |
| The 2010 extreme heat wave in Russia and record flooding in Pakistan are early warnings of the global consequences we can expect if we continue with business as usual |
| 2010 Russian Heat Wave |
| Fallout | |
| In 2009, the Black Sea region contributed roughly ¼ of world wheat exports, but Russia has banned grain exports entirely through mid-2011 | |
| Heat and drought decimated grass and hay growth, prompting the government to release 3 million tons of grain to supplement cattle feed; still, farmers have had to cull herds | |
| World wheat prices increase 60% over 2 months | |
| Situation | |
| Average Moscow July temperature: 14¡F above norm | |
| Number of fires starting every day in early August: 300-400 | |
| Forest damage and restoration cost estimate: $300 billion | |
| Total death count from heat wave and air pollution: >56,000 | |
| Drop in the Russian grain harvest: down 40% to 60 million tons from recent annual harvests of 100 million tons | |
| Nightmare Scenario |
| 40% drop in Russian grain harvest reduced world grain stocks from 79 days of consumption to 72 days | |
| But what if the heat wave were centered on Chicago and the much larger U.S. grain harvest dropped 40%? | |
| World grain stocks would plummet to record-low 52 days – well below the level that preceded the tripling of grain prices in 2007-08 | |
| Would likely result in unprecedented food price inflation and food riots in scores of countries, toppling weaker governments | |
| 2010 Pakistan Flooding |
| Situation: | ||
| Inundated 1/5 of the country | ||
| Affected 20 million people | ||
| Killed 2,000 people | ||
| Damaged 2 million homes | ||
| Drowned 1 million livestock | ||
| Damaged 6 million acres of crops | ||
| Washed away roads and bridges | ||
| Most devastating natural disaster in PakistanÕs history | ||
| Contributing Trends: | ||
| In 1990, military budget was 44 times health and family planning budget, leaving population growth unchecked | ||
| Humans and livestock stripped vegetation needed to contain rainfall | ||
| 90% of the Indus basinÕs original forests are gone | ||
| Record heat accelerated melting of Himalayan ice and snow, raising Indus levels | ||
| Three Indicators to Watch |
| Food Prices Soaring |
| Hunger Rising |
| More States Failing |
| States fail when governments lose control of part or all of their territory and can no longer ensure their peopleÕs security | |
| As pressures from population growth, water shortages, climate change, and food scarcity increase, state failure is both spreading and deepening | |
| Precarious Global Food Situation: How Did We Get Here? |
| Food Demand Growing |
| World population is increasing by 80 million annually | |
| Some 3 billion people are trying to move up the food chain and eat more grain-intensive livestock products | |
| Expanding biofuel production means that cars and people compete for crops | |
| Population Pressures |
| Dense populations and their livestock herds degrade land, undermining food production | |
| Worldwide, 215 million women who want to plan their families lack access to family planning services | |
| Large families trap people in poverty |
| Slide 16 |
| Food Supply Tightening |
| Growth in crop yields is slowing | |
| Cropland is being lost to non-farm uses | |
| Deserts are expanding | |
| Aquifers are being overpumped | |
| Extreme weather events and rising temperatures threaten harvests |
| Growth in Crop Yields Slowing |
| From 1950-1990, average grain yields rose 2.2% per year; but from 1990-2010, they rose just 1.2% annually | |
| Wheat yields are plateauing in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Egypt, all important producers | |
| JapanÕs rice yields, close to 5 tons per hectare, have been flat for over a decade; those in China may also plateau as they approach the Japanese level |
| Eroding Soils, Expanding Deserts |
| Overplowing, overgrazing, and deforestation make soil vulnerable to wind and water erosion | |
| Roughly 1/3 of the worldÕs cropland is now losing topsoil faster than it can be re-formed | |
| Topsoil loss reduces productivity, eventually leading farmers and herders to abandon their land | |
| Countries such as Lesotho, Haiti, Mongolia, and North Korea are losing the ability to feed themselves |
| Saudi ArabiaÕs Bursting Bubble |
| Saudi Arabia became self-sufficient in wheat by tapping a non-replenishable aquifer to irrigate the desert | |
| In early 2008, the government announced the aquifer was largely depleted | |
| The population of nearly 30 million could be entirely dependent on imported grain by 2013 |
| Water Shortages |
| Climate Change |
| The increasing concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere, largely from burning fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas), and other greenhouse gases are driving a rise in global temperature and causing changes to our climate system | |
| Since the start of the Industrial Revolution, atmospheric CO2 has risen from 280 parts per million to 389 parts per million |
| Average Global Temperature and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentrations, 1880-2010 |
| Climate Change |
| The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects earthÕs average temperature will rise 1.1 - 6.4¡C (2.0 - 11.5¡F) during this century | |
| Current trajectory is already outpacing projections | |
| As temperatures rise, glaciers and ice sheets melt, causing sea level to rise | |
| Extreme weather events, such as crop-withering heat waves, droughts, and powerful storms become more frequent and more intense | |
| For every 1¡C rise in temperature above the optimum during the growing season, yields of wheat, rice, and corn drop 10 percent. | |
| 2010: A Year of Extremes |
| Glaciers Disappearing |
| As temperatures rise, mountain glaciers are rapidly disappearing around the world | |
| Himalayan and Tibetan-Qinghai Plateau glaciers sustain the major rivers of Asia during the dry season, providing critical irrigation water for agriculture | |
| If melting continues at current rates, the flow of rivers like the Yellow, Yangtze, Ganges, and Indus could decline, causing wheat and rice harvests to plummet |
| Ice Sheets Melting |
| Massive Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets that together hold enough water to raise sea level 12 meters (39 feet) are melting at accelerating rates | |
| A 10-meter (33-foot) sea level rise would displace more than 600 million people | |
| Sea level could rise 2 meters (6 feet) by 2100 | |
| Even a 1-meter rise in sea level would partially inundate crop-producing river deltas in countries such as Bangladesh and Viet Nam |