Assume Ò100-year stormÓ will require
trestle bridge to be replaced.
Such a storm
would occur with a probability of 0.01 that in any year the bridge will be
destroyed. Using binomial
probability tables for n = 50 and p = 0.01, we find the
probability of having any number of floods during the next 50 years
Probability
Number of Ò100-year stormsÓ
0.60
0
0.31
1
0.08
2
0.01
3
If a storm
occurs during next 50 years, the additional cost incurred would be an extra $80,000
(unless storm occurs happens to occur in the year in which the bridge was
schedule to be replaced, and an additional negative benefit of $90,000 for
each month the region is without the bridge.
Costs depend on years (time) in which the
storm(s) occur(s).
Estimate the PV of the additional costs
by averaging its time of occurrence.