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cadolph at uw dot edu



I’m a member of the faculty at the University of Washington, Seattle, where I serve as professor of political science, adjunct professor of statistics, and associate director of the Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences.

COVID-19 State Policy Project

My recent research focuses on comparing policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic across the US states. I’m the faculty lead for a team of political science and public health researchers collecting and analyzing data on state-level social distancing policies. Data reflecting policies issued from March 2020 through July 2021 are available at covid19statepolicy.org. See also our articles on partisan patterns in the adoption of social distancing mandates, the adoption of mask mandates, and the easing of social distancing requirements. Our data also inform IHME’s COVID-19 forecasting and modeling efforts.

Substantive Interests

My political economy and comparative politics research explores the ways political institutions and interests jointly determine the public policies that shape our lives, including monetary policy, fiscal policy, health policy, and trade policy. I am particularly interested in the influence of career incentives and partisanship on elite behavior and policy making.

Methodological interests

I specialize in the visual display of scientific information, particularly the illustration of substantive findings from statistical models. I’m also interested in statistical inference using data whose logical bounds enable or improve estimation, as in the study of political rank; compositional data like careers, budgets, and trade portfolios; and ecological inference.

Other activities

I serve as an expert witness on the use of statistical methods to resolve contested elections. I also consult on matters relating to statistical methodology and data visualization.



←Newer NewsOlder→

23-oct-20.  New publication:
“Modeling COVID-19 Scenarios for the United States” has been published in Nature Medicine. This article documents IHME’s well-known forecasting model for COVID-19 cases and deaths in the US. Several members of the COVID-19 State Policy Project are coauthors, including Bree Bang-Jensen, Nancy Fullman, Beatrice Magistro, Grace Reinke, and myself. For the current model forecasts from IHME, see covid19.healthdata.org.

19-oct-20.  Two new videos: On October 16, Beatrice Magistro and I presented “Pandemic Politics: Understanding State-Level Policy Responses to COVID-19” (joint work with Kenya Amano, Bree Bang-Jensen, Nancy Fullman, Grace Reinke, and John Wilkerson) as part of a seminar on Policy Analytics and Population Health hosted by the Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology at the University of Washington.

On September 21, I took part in a panel discussion of “The Economy as a 2020 Election Issue” with Margaret Levi (Stanford University), Bill Galston (Brookings Institution), and Washington State Senator Doug Erickson, hosted by Mort Kondracke and sponsored by Folio: The Seattle Athenaeum.

16-sep-20.  New publication:
“Pandemic Politics: Timing State-Level Social Distancing Responses to COVID-19”, joint work with Kenya Amano, Bree Bang-Jensen, Nancy Fullman, and John Wilkerson, is published in the Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law.




University of Washington link

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