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cadolph at uw dot edu

I’m a professor of political science at the University of Washington, Seattle, where I am also an adjunct professor of statistics and the director of consulting in the Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences.

COVID-19 State Policy Project

My recent research focuses on comparing policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic across the US states. I’m the faculty lead for a team of political science and public health researchers collecting and analyzing data on state-level social distancing policies. Data reflecting policies issued from March 2020 through July 2021 are available at covid19statepolicy.org. See also our articles on partisan patterns in the adoption of social distancing mandates, the adoption of mask mandates, and the easing of social distancing requirements. Our data also inform IHME’s COVID-19 forecasting and modeling efforts.

Substantive Interests

My political economy and comparative politics research explores the ways political institutions and interests jointly determine the public policies that shape our lives, including monetary policy, fiscal policy, health policy, and trade policy. I am particularly interested in the influence of career incentives and partisanship on elite behavior and policy making.

Methodological interests

I specialize in the visual display of scientific information, particularly the illustration of substantive findings from statistical models. I’m also interested in statistical inference using data whose logical bounds enable or improve estimation, as in the study of political rank; compositional data like careers, budgets, and trade portfolios; and ecological inference.

Other activities

I serve as an expert witness on the use of statistical methods to resolve contested elections. I also consult on matters relating to statistical methodology and data visualization.


2-dec-21.  Winter course offered: Visualizing Data and Models is intended for graduate students, but is also open to prepared undergraduates. Space still available!

8-oct-21.  New publication:
“Global Prevalence and Burden of Depressive and Anxiety Disorders in 204 Countries and Territories in 2020 Due to the COVID-19 Pandemic” has been published in The Lancet. Several members of the COVID-19 State Policy Project are coauthors, including Bree Bang-Jensen, Nancy Fullman, Beatrice Magistro, Grace Reinke, Rachel Castellano, Megan Erickson, Carolyn Dapper, Rebecca Walcott, and myself.

1-oct-21.  New publication: “The Pandemic Policy U-Turn: Partisanship, Public Health, and Race in Decisions to Ease COVID-19 Social Distancing Policies in the United States,” joint work with Kenya Amano, Bree Bang-Jensen, Nancy Fullman, Beatrice Magistro, Grace Reinke, Rachel Castellano, Megan Erickson, and John Wilkerson, is published today for a special issue of Perspectives on Politics on the politics of COVID-19. A write-up of the work also appears in UW News.

University of Washington link

CSSS Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences link

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