ABSTRACT: Examined the consequences of prejudice against accepting the null hypothesis
through (a) a mathematical model intended to stimulate the research-publication
process and (b) case studies of apparent erroneous rejections of the null hypothesis
in published psychological research. The input parameters for the model characterize
investigators' probabilities of selecting a problem for which the null hypothesis
is true, of reporting, following up on, or abandoning research when data do or
do not reject the null hypothesis, and they characterize editors' probabilities
of publishing manuscripts concluding in favor of or against the null hypothesis.
With estimates of the input parameters based on a questionnaire survey of 75 social
psychologists, the model output indicates a dysfunctional research-publication
system. Particularly, the model indicates that there may be relatively few publications
on problems for which the null hypothesis is (at least to a reasonable approximation)
true, and of these, a high proportion will erroneously reject the null hypothesis.
The case studies provide additional support for this conclusion. It is concluded
that research traditions and customs of discrimination against accepting the null
hypothesis may be very detrimental to research progress.