Climate Forecasts for Improving Management of Energy and Hydropower Resources in the Western U.S.

This project investigates the potential of climate forecasts to help predict variations in supplies and demands of water and energy resources in order to improve joint management.

Although water and energy agencies use forecast models to help manage resources in California and the Columbia River basin, these models rarely incorporate climate predictions. Also, these methods have generally been applied at local rather than regional scales. Further, little or no prior effort has been made to jointly predict both water and energy variations across the West on seasonal time scales.

Joint prediction of water and power generation potential is critical, given the large role hydroelectric power plays in the economy of the western states. Consideration of both California and the Pacific Northwest is also critical because these regions exchange power; for instance, a winter drought in Washington can affect the subsequent summer exports of hydroelectric power to California for air conditioning.

A result of this project will be an integrated analysis of climate, water, and energy throughout the western U.S. to improve the usefulness of seasonal climate prediction in operational management of western water and energy resources.

Funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Anne C. Steinemann, Co-PI, with Timothy P. Barnett, PI

Above: Grand Coulee Dam. Photo: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation